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Appeals Court Rules Against Prediction Markets, Setting Up Supreme Court Fight

A U.S. appeals court has ruled against prediction markets, finding that sports-related event contracts are not swaps and creating a split with another circuit that could push the issue to the Supreme Court.

Key facts

  • The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that sports-related event contracts are not swaps.
  • The decision contradicts a Third Circuit ruling issued in April.
  • The conflicting rulings set up a likely fight at the Supreme Court.
  • The ruling was reported by CNBC on August 28, 2026.

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled against prediction markets, finding that sports-related event contracts are not swaps, according to CNBC. The decision directly contradicts an earlier ruling from the Third Circuit Court of Appeals issued in April.

At the center of the dispute is whether sports-related event contracts should be classified as swaps, a legal designation that carries significant regulatory implications for how such products can be offered and overseen. The Ninth Circuit concluded that these contracts do not fall into that category.

The ruling creates what is known as a circuit split, in which two federal appeals courts reach opposing conclusions on the same legal question. Such disagreements often serve as a trigger for the U.S. Supreme Court to take up a case in order to resolve the conflict and establish a uniform national standard.

As CNBC reported, the contradiction between the Ninth Circuit and the Third Circuit sets up a likely fight at the Supreme Court. Until the nation’s highest court weighs in, the legal status of these contracts could remain uncertain across different parts of the country.

The outcome carries weight for the fast-growing prediction markets sector, which offers contracts tied to real-world outcomes, including sporting events. How courts ultimately classify these products will help determine the regulatory framework under which they operate.

Why it matters

The classification of sports-related event contracts determines how prediction markets are regulated across the country. With two appeals courts now in conflict, the uncertainty could reach the Supreme Court, whose decision would set a nationwide standard affecting a rapidly expanding industry.

Frequently asked questions

What did the Ninth Circuit rule?

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that sports-related event contracts are not swaps, according to CNBC.

Why could this go to the Supreme Court?

The Ninth Circuit's ruling contradicts a Third Circuit ruling from April, and this disagreement between appeals courts sets up a likely fight at the Supreme Court.

When was the ruling reported?

CNBC reported the ruling on August 28, 2026.

ⓘ This article was generated with AI assistance, checked against the listed sources, and cleared by an independent AI editorial review.

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